The Impact of a Significant Demographic Shift on the World
The Impact of a Significant Demographic Shift on the World
However, predictions always entail some degree of uncertainty, and there is evidence that fertility rates in sub-Saharan African countries are declining even faster than the U.N. projects. This suggests that those African countries could be even better positioned in 2050 than is now projected.
But if there aren’t the correct regulations in place, a large population of people of working age can actually be detrimental to economic growth rather than beneficial. Widespread teenage unemployment can potentially pose a threat to stability, as dissatisfied young people may turn to criminal or armed groups in search of better prospects if huge numbers of young adults do not have access to jobs or educational options.
“If you don’t have employment for those people who are entering the labour force, then it’s no guarantee that the demographic dividend is going to happen,” said Carolina Cardona, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University who works with the Demographic Dividend Initiative. Cardona is involved with the Demographic Dividend Initiative.
According to Philip O’Keefe, who directs the Ageing Asia Research Hub at the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research and previously led reports on ageing in East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank, East Asian countries that hit the demographic sweet spot in the last few decades had particularly good institutions and policies in place to take advantage of that potential. East Asian countries that hit the demographic sweet spot in the last few decades included Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
According to Mr. O’Keefe, other regions of the world, such as certain portions of Latin America, have age patterns that were comparable to those of the East Asian countries; but, these regions have not had anywhere near the same level of growth. “Demography is the raw material,” he explained. “The interaction of the raw material and the good policies is what generates the dividend.”
Young countries of today are not the only ones that are currently at a crucial crossroads. The process of transformation in wealthy countries is only getting started. If these nations do not take the necessary steps to prepare for a potential decrease in the number of employees, they will see both their standard of living and their economic influence gradually deteriorate.
According to forecasts made by the United Nations regarding the world’s population for the year 2050, the number of people of working age in South Korea and Italy, two countries that will be among the world’s oldest, is expected to decline by 13 million and 10 million respectively. According to projections, China will have 200 million fewer citizens who are of working age by the year 2050. This represents a decline that is bigger than the total population of the majority of countries.
According to the opinions of various experts, wealthy countries that are ageing will need to reevaluate their immigration policy, pension systems, and the nature of later life.
The transition will not be a simple one. More than one million people have come to the streets in France to voice their opposition to the government’s plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, bringing to light the challenging politics involved in responding. Concerns over immigration have helped to bolster the popularity of right-wing candidates in several ageing nations in both the West and East Asia.
According to Dr. Myrskyla, “a significant portion of the difficulties faced on a global scale are questions of distribution.” “So it seems that some areas have an excessive number of elderly folks. There are some areas that have an excessive number of youthful people. Naturally, it would make a great deal of sense to loosen up the restrictions placed on entry into the country. And at the same time, we see that it is extremely challenging due to the rise of right-wing populist movements.
According to the World Bank, the effects of these shifts will be exacerbated in Asian countries, which are ageing at a more rapid rate than those in other parts of the world. A change in age structure that took more than 100 years in France and more than 60 years in the United States took several East and Southeast Asian countries about 20 years to occur. France is one of those countries.
Not only are the countries of Asia getting much older at a far faster rate, but some of them are also getting elderly before they get wealthy. China’s working-age population reached its peak while the country’s per capita income was only 20 percent of what it was in the United States at the same point in time. This is in contrast to Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, all of which have very high income levels. Vietnam also achieved the same peak, albeit it was only 14 percent as high.
Pension programmes in nations with lower average incomes are less prepared to deal with the effects of an ageing population than those in nations with higher average incomes.
According to Mr. O’Keefe, a comprehensive pension system is not something that is available to workers in the majority of countries with lower incomes. They don’t put away a portion of their salary into retirement plans nearly as often as people do in many other wealthy countries.
He stated, “That is clearly not a situation that is going to be sustainable socially in 20 years when you have much higher shares of aged population.” “That is clearly not a situation that is going to be sustainable socially in 20 years.” “Countries will have to figure out what kind of pension system they need to implement in order to provide some kind of adequate financial support to their elderly populations at some point in their lives.”
And other wealthy nations, like the United States, won’t have to contend with changes that are quite as dramatic.
The United States and Australia, for example, will have younger populations than the majority of other wealthy countries in 2050 as a result of slightly higher fertility rates and increased immigration. According to forecasts made by the United Nations, by the year 2050, just under 24 percent of the population in both the United States and Australia would be 65 or older. This percentage is significantly greater than it is now, but it is significantly lower than it will be in most of Europe and East Asia, which will reach 30 percent.
Ageing is a remarkable achievement despite its drawbacks.
“We’ve managed to increase the length of life,” Dr. Myrskyla stated. “We have been successful in lowering infant mortality. People now have the ability to decide whether or not they want to have children, rather than having that decision coerced or imposed upon them by the structures of society, regardless of the number of children they choose to have.
Not only are people living longer, but they are also enjoying lives that are healthier and more active as time goes on. The high degree of development that ageing countries have indicates that they will continue to be prosperous for a considerable amount of time.
However, choices about behaviour and policies implemented by governments loom significant.
“You can say with some kind of degree of confidence what the demographics will look like,” Mr. O’Keefe said. “You can say with some kind of confidence what the demographics will look like.” The choices that are made regarding public policy and shifts in individual behaviour will have a significant impact on the appearance of the society in the future.
